Transboundary water conflicts have been going on since ancient times and in recent years Türkiye, Syria and Iraq have had disputes over water, Egypt and Sudan have been in conflict with Ethiopia on construction of a dam over the Nile. India has water disputes with all of its neighbors, but with Pakistan it dates back to the Partition. Indus water basin Treaty was signed in 1960 and withstood major wars between the two countries, water flow and water data continued to be shared.
But after a military confrontation between Pakistan and India, in April 2025, India unilaterally put the Indus water Treaty in abeyance and has threatened to stop the flow of water to Pakistan, compromising its agricultural and energy resources. Even though Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in Hague ruled in favour of Pakistan, India has refused to acknowledge its authority in the matter.
Islamabad countered this injustice by issuing a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) on 24 April 2025 formally announcing the closure of its airspace to Indian aircraft. India reciprocally did the same, with Pakistan periodically extending the ban to last till 23 August 2026, with all indicators suggesting it might continue.
In 2019 border conflict Pakistan banned all airlines headed to India using its airspace but this time around it’s just the Indian owned, leased or operated airlines that got blocked, so this will give an edge to foreign carriers, operating out of India, while ensuring that revenues for Pakistan do not dry up.
Indian airlines mostly fly west and inevitably have to use Pakistani airspace. New Delhi airport, one of the world’s busiest, is the worst hit by Pakistan’s airspace closure. Since the ban India has to reroute its west bound flights through the southern corridor via Arabian sea. Air India and IndiGo have started rerouting flights to New York, Azerbaijan, and Dubai, which normally flew over Pakistan.
Pakistan’s own aviation operations have been minimally affected since only a few eastbound flights have been rerouted via China.
Official data presented to Pakistan’s National Assembly shows that banning Indian-registered aircraft from its airspace cost Pakistan Airport Authority about Rs 4.1 billion in overflight fees between 24 April and 30 June 2025. That works out to an average daily shortfall of roughly Rs 60 million, or around $6.3 million a month, with transit traffic through Pakistani airspace down by nearly 20% as 100-150 Indian flights a day were affected.
For Indian carriers, the financial hit is much higher. A Press Trust of India (PTI) analysis estimated that some 1,900 two-way monthly flights to the Middle East were rerouted with about 45 minutes added to their journey time, while around 1,200 flights to Europe and North America faced delays of up to 1.5 hours. Higher fuel use, longer flight times, added crew costs, possible technical-stop charges, and lower cargo revenue were put at roughly $37 million a month in additional operating expenses, though these are only estimates.
Air India’s own internal calculations are much steeper, it has told the Indian government that if the Pakistan airspace ban lasts a full year, the airline could lose more than $591 million, or roughly $49 million a month, and has asked for a subsidies to bear the financial strain.
The situation worsened on February 28, 2026, when a joint U.S.-Israeli operation against Iran sparked a broader regional conflict. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz on March 2, corresponding airspace closures across Iran, Iraq, Israel, and the Gulf states choked India’s primary westbound corridor, which was already strained by the Pakistan detour. Together, the dual disruptions add three to four hours to a single long-haul flight. And does it even need mentioning that aviation fuel prices skyrocketed.
Indian Airlines customers are jumping ship because of longer routes, additional fares and are opting for foreign carriers going direct to their destinations. So, Pakistan is getting covered for some of its losses. Air India has recently asked its government for subsidy and tax exemptions in order to keep its head above the waters, as in the FY 26 its losses were estimated at $2.3 Billion.
Indian media on the other hand just cannot help themselves, it’s almost as if they’re sitting there with calculators, gleefully tallying up every rupee Pakistan might lose, then adding a few extra zeros for dramatic effect. Not because they’re losing sleep over Pakistan’s economy, mind you, but because they know Indian airlines are taking a hit which they cannot sustain for long.
It may be argued that these flight bans are counterproductive, hurting travel and making tensions worse. When a country’s most important resources are under threat a tit for tat approach is the only recourse. While diplomacy is always the best way, it can only go so far when one side simply ignores international rules. The flight ban sends a clear message, Pakistan won’t just sit by if its water is used as a weapon against it. It shows that Pakistan’s airspace is its national power and without resorting to military action, it can make an aggressor feel the economic pinch.
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